Our future as an electrostate: Alan Finkel on how Australia gets to net zero from here

Reaching zero is going to be quite challenging, Kathleen.

At a dinner gathering right after the 2022 Australian election in May, the Labor party, helmed by Anthony Albanese, emerged as the new government. The Greens and climate-centred independent parties also scored an extraordinary number of seats. During the conversation, Kathleen expressed her thoughts in a victorious manner, while rolling her eyes.

"Assuming the recent change in politics remains steadfast, we should arrive at our destination in a swift manner."

Kathleen couldn't see what was coming up ahead speedily.

Our current energy system is heavily dependent on fossil fuels. However, replacing this with renewable energy sources such as wind and solar power is an enormous challenge. Just imagine vast fields of wind turbines stretching across hills and cliffs, reaching from the shore all the way to the sky. Also, picture endless lines of solar panels as far as the eye can see, blending into the desert landscape like a dream. To accomplish this, we would need to increase our current renewable energy capacity by a factor of 20.

Extracting the minerals required for batteries and solar panels will require large-scale mining. To construct towering wind turbines, enormous factories will be necessary. There will be a need for extensive high-voltage transmission lines to transport electricity to power mines and factories, as well as to provide constant power to urban areas. This will require extensive infrastructure.

Achieving our goals requires us to collaborate with and assist impacted communities, secure financing that surpasses previous levels, and implement government policies that translate objectives into tangible steps.

I told Kathleen that the task at hand is enormous and daunting. Despite our efforts and concerns spanning 30 years, we have barely made a dent in our efforts to decrease global emissions. Between 1990 and 2021, the colossal entity that is global civilization merely managed to reduce its reliance on fossil fuels from 87% to 83% of the total energy consumed worldwide. To put it into perspective, we have only managed to reduce that number by 4% in the last 30 years. However, in the next 30 years, we need to reduce that number by a staggering 83%.

Kathleen's face went from happy and victorious to sad and hopeless.

As an engineer, my expertise lies in finding solutions to complex problems. Over the years, I have dedicated my knowledge and efforts to tackle the climate problem. During my tenure as Australia's chief scientist, I led the review of the country's energy market and contributed to the development of the national hydrogen strategy and the low-emissions technology roadmap. Prior to that, I worked at Better Place, a pioneering startup, where I came up with a plan for the charging infrastructure for electric cars.

The challenge in front of us is significant, yet there are grounds for positivity.

We are aware of the solution. The substitution of fossil fuels with electricity that produces no emissions is what we need to pursue. Our goal is to pave the way for the electric era to take over from the industrial era.

We're starting a journey. Solar and wind energy only provided 5% of the world's total energy consumption in 2021. However, these sources of energy were nonexistent in 1990. Their usage has increased fourfold each decade. If this pace is maintained in the next 20 years, we could achieve total decarbonization of the energy system.

In order to maintain the momentum of progress, we require an effective worldwide supply network. Although the fundamental components have been established for several years now, they are susceptible to disruption - take, for example, the Covid pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine.

During USA's leadership after World War II, protective trade practices such as tariffs and quotas were eliminated globally. This led to an economically prosperous international community. However, there were certain anomalies that arose, such as an over-reliance on certain suppliers. This was exemplified when Russia reduced gas exports to Europe in 2022. This event demonstrated the potential risks of having concentrated supply chains in the transition towards clean energy. Currently, China is the main country refining battery materials and producing solar panels, while the Democratic Republic of Congo supplies most of the world's cobalt used in electric vehicle batteries.

To undergo a successful shift to renewable energy, we need to significantly increase our efforts in mining essential materials. These include lithium, cobalt, manganese, nickel, and graphite – all necessary for the production of batteries. We also require silver and silicon for solar panels, rare earth elements for magnets in electric vehicle motors, and wind turbine generators. Furthermore, we need to source aluminum for lightweight vehicles and copper for their internal wiring, as well as platinum and iridium for hydrogen production.

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With the growth of mining, there arises a chance to distribute the supply of minerals among a wider array of nations. However, mining firms must also take it upon themselves to safeguard biodiversity and restore the nearby surroundings. It is crucial that their employment procedures do not make use of child labor or compulsion of labor in any way.

Coal plants have no future, but it would be risky to shut them down before we can build reliable solar and wind plants. This could cause prolonged power outages, which would be disastrous for modern life. It could also undermine public support for our transition to net zero emissions.

It's important to pay attention to the consequences of our actions, even if our initial intentions are good. Sometimes, even actions meant to help the environment can backfire. For instance, companies might sell off their fossil fuel assets to improve their "green" image, but the people buying those assets often don't face the same pressure to be environmentally responsible. This can lead to practices that are even more damaging to the planet than before. So, it's important to be thoughtful about our actions and their consequences.

A different instance of unintended consequences is when wealthy nations enhance their emission ratings by transferring their heavy industries to developing countries. In this case, the planet suffers even more because developing nations usually operate their factories using energy sources that produce higher emissions.

Instead of getting rid of or relocating, it's better for businesses and governments to put their money into renewable technology to enhance their competitiveness and phase out fossil fuels. The focus should be on making investments, rather than pulling out. If countries invest in alternative energy sources like hydro, solar and wind power, they will have greater assurance that they can produce their own energy, without relying on foreign imports. This will also bring financial benefits, as renewable energy tends to be less expensive and less affected by sudden market changes.

In order to achieve net zero, societies will need to embrace technologies that some may have a strong aversion to.

Nuclear energy is a viable option for some countries who may not have the resources or suitable environment to implement large scale solar, wind, or hydro power systems. Carbon capture and storage is another important solution that the United Nations and International Energy Agency recommend as the only method to achieve true net zero emissions. Despite reducing emissions, residual byproducts like methane and carbon dioxide will always exist. Agriculture and waste decay can produce methane, and carbon dioxide is emitted from industrial chemical reactions like cement production.

If there is a different option to using fossil fuels, we should go after it.

The mission ahead seems difficult, but I truly believe that with creativity and innovation, we can conquer any challenge. The James Webb space telescope from Nasa faced a lot of obstacles and negative predictions, but it has finally uncovered the wonders of our universe. On the opposite side of the spectrum, microprocessors continue to exceed expectations by continuously fitting more and more onto a single chip. It's equally impressive how solar panels, wind turbines, and lithium-ion batteries have made tremendous advancements in both efficiency and affordability.

Australia has a great chance to become a leading source of energy for the world by using our plentiful minerals and sustainable power. Our country could become a hub for creating and distributing materials necessary for the transition to cleaner energy and reducing carbon dioxide emissions. With the use of advanced technology and innovation, we can still maintain our modern lifestyle while switching to more environmentally friendly options.

Achieving this goal will not be a piece of cake. However, we can make it happen if we streamline the supply chain, guarantee the reliability of financing, allocate resources to constantly enhance our technology, and remain receptive to new perspectives. In the words of the renowned American architect Buckminster Fuller, "You can never change the world by battling the way things are. If you really want to make a change, create a new model that renders the old one irrelevant."

This blog post contains excerpts from the book Powering Up, written by Dr. Alan Finkel and published by Black Inc. It is now available for purchase.