Longer Oil Routes Post-war Raise Pollution Risk

Before the Russia-Ukraine war, oil trade routes were short. They are now at least five times longer. Longer shipping routes might cause more emissions.

Europe stopped buying oil from Russia and started buying from West Africa, Latin America, and the US. Russia used to sell most of its oil to Europe, but now sells it to India and China instead.

Russia used to export oil to Europe by sea from Ust-Luga and Primorsk ports. The journey took five to six days. Europe was the main destination for Russian oil. This was before the war. It changed things.

In December 2022, Europe put sanctions on Russian crude supplies. This stopped Russian oil exports to ports in northwest Europe.

Europe used to get their oil from Russia, but now they have to find it from other places. These places are West Africa, Latin America, and the US. The new routes to these places are longer than the old route from Russia to northwest Europe. Viktor Katona from Kpler said this.

"Before, the journey from West Africa or Latin America to Europe took around 5-6 days. Nowadays, it takes about 25 days, which is 5 times longer."

In March 2023, Europe received more crude oil from Brazil than any other Latin American country. Brazil exported 325,116 barrels per day of crude oil to Europe, up from 236,959 barrels per day in February 2022. This year, Brazil's crude oil exports hit a new high in February, reaching 491,000 barrels per day. That's more than twice the amount from the previous year.

Going from Brazil to Europe takes about 20-30 days. It depends on where in Europe you're going. Spain and Portugal are close and Germany and the Netherlands are far.

After the war, Mexican exports to Europe stayed mostly the same. Guyana's exports to Europe shot up to 270,000 barrels each day from pretty much none before the war.

Europe has received a lot of raw oil from Trinidad and Tobacco for the past eight months. It has been a constant flow.

Rotterdam has a big oil center in the Netherlands. Latin America's crude oil goes to Italy, Portugal, Germany, and France after the war.

Nigeria and Angola are big crude suppliers to Europe in West Africa. They are the largest in the region. They produce and export crude oil to Europe. They have become important players in the region.

More oil from West Africa is being shipped to Europe, taking a journey of about 25 days since there's no Russian oil.

Jim Mitchell, a manager of oil research at LSEG, said that the US, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, and West Africa want to supply in areas where Russia left.

Nigeria is supplying the most oil to Europe in West Africa. Angola is also sending more oil, with exports up to over 300,000 barrels per day. This is a big increase from last year's average of only 33,000 barrels per day. This growth has been consistent since the beginning of the war.

After the war, West African countries sent the most crude to the Netherlands.

More oil is being shipped from the US to Europe. Numerous countries including the Netherlands, Italy, the UK, Finland, Lithuania, Sweden, Denmark, Germany, Spain, and Canada have started importing more US crude.

In February 2022, the UK got about 289,192 barrels of crude from the US each day. But after some months, it went up to over 400,000 barrels. Holland's imports of crude went up too. They got over 510,000 barrels per day in March 2023. This is almost twice the amount they got a year before.

Most of the crude oil shipments from US Gulf ports to Europe require around 20 days.

Russia to India has the biggest difference in travel time. Other countries have lesser differences. This is based on a study. The study compared travel times between countries. It found Russia to India has the largest gap. Travel time depends on distance and transportation options. Flying is usually faster than driving or taking a train. Travel time also depends on location and available routes. It’s important to consider travel time when planning a trip. Knowing how long it takes can help you plan better.

Russia is sending oil on longer trips to get to India and China. These two countries are now the top buyers of Russian oil.

Goods from Russia are sent to countries like India and China through Baltic ports such as Ust-Luga and Primorsk. The journey involves sailing through the Baltic Sea, going around the Danish Islands, crossing the British Straits, Gibraltar, Malta, and Sicily. Then, the ships make their way through the Suez Canal and continue through the Red Sea. It takes around 30-35 days to reach India and another 10 days to get to China.

Katona said that some types of crude oil don't take as long to deliver. For example, ESPO blend crude oil from Russia's Far East can be shipped to China in about five days. This is because it's close to China. However, other types of crude oil can take up to 40-45 days to be delivered.

Kpler data says Russia sent more oil to India. This happened in March 2023. They sent 1.99 million barrels per day. This is the highest number since the war. In February 2022, they sent zero barrels.

Russian crude sent to India has grown nonstop for nine months. The countries have a love affair, according to Katona.

During the war, Russia still exported one million barrels per day to China. Sri Lanka and Myanmar started importing more Russian crude too. Before the war, they didn't really import much.

Shipping routes that take longer will increase emissions from ships. Ships contribute 3% of the world's carbon emissions.

The trade in the world is more polluting than before. The voyage time from Russia to India is causing a lot of emissions. This is more than if it takes five days to get to Rotterdam. Exports from the US, West Africa, and Latin America to Europe also cause more emissions. Katona said this.

Now, the shortest supply route from Russia is through Turkey.

Katona said Turkey is reducing shipping emissions for Russian crude and oil products. The trip from Russia's only crude export terminal to Turkey takes three to four days. It's the only country doing this.

He said that right now, it's the quickest way for Russia to send supplies to Turkey. Turkey has been buying a lot of crude and oil products from Russia.

Last February, Russia exported 94,335 barrels of oil to Turkey. But in September 2022, it reached its peak with 392,908 barrels per day. Unfortunately, the import of oil dropped to only 145,973 barrels per day in March 2023.

Turkey has lots of refining capacity. They focus on making diesel. They buy diesel from Russia and use it in their own country. They also make their own diesel to sell to Europe. This is allowed and a good idea.

The Middle East is still the largest supplier of Asia.

Katona says Middle East sells more to Asia and the voyage is longer. The countries in the Middle East prefer selling to Asia because they are close and they can supply more crude.

Asian countries still depend mostly on Middle Eastern countries for their crude oil needs, despite the recent increase in Russian exports to China and India.

Saudi Arabia sent an average of 5.5 million barrels a day to Asia for the last 18 months. The UAE's exports were about 3 million barrels a day. These are the numbers.

Most of Saudi Arabia's exports leave from Ras Tanura in the Persian Gulf. It's close to Bahrain. They cross the Strait of Hormuz. Then they sail out into the Indian Ocean.

Mitchell said that Saudi Arabia can now enter markets where Russia used to work.

He said global energy market involves more than just oil routes and the impact on diplomacy is being exposed.

He said the Ukrainian war led to de-globalization.

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