How China’s Sputtering Recovery Is Hurting Crude Oil Prices

Petroleum

According to Bloomberg, the oil market's initial excitement over China's reopening has transformed into an understanding that getting the economy back on track will be a challenging task, given the three-year impact of the pandemic restrictions.

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The largest purchaser of crude oil worldwide is China; imports have increased again this year. However, the actual demand for oil indicates a less impressive improvement. The economy has experienced a slowdown over the past few months, and those who predicted a rapid resurgence of oil prices to $100 per barrel have suddenly become less talkative.

More than half of the country's oil consumption is due to the need for transportation, with diesel fuel being the primary contributor. Nearly one-fifth of this consumption is utilized by the petrochemical industry for the production of consumer goods and plastic materials. The remaining amount is used for power generation, mining, agriculture, and construction purposes.

With the first half of the year coming to an end, China is working to boost its growth by implementing stimulus measures. However, there are several obstacles that may hinder consumption. Check out the following five charts for a breakdown of these challenges.

Following the abandonment of the Covid Zero measures by Beijing towards the close of last year, individuals started to hit the road, causing the traffic levels in major cities to rise. However, this trend is now gradually dwindling as people return to their regular routines while also being mindful of their expenditure due to the slowed-down economy.

In terms of economic recovery, the industrial sector in China has not performed as well as sectors that directly cater to consumers. Additionally, there hasn't been much improvement in the trucking industry. Due to the COVID-19 outbreak earlier this year, the amount of trucks transporting goods to and from factories and construction sites has significantly decreased. Comparing to last year's average of 7 million, the daily volume of trucks in 2023 has only been 6.1 million.

The weakened manufacturing industry is also affecting other energy products, as they are experiencing a drop in prices. The cost of transporting natural gas by truck to fuel factories that create products such as glass and ceramics has fallen to the lowest it has been in nearly two years.

The expectation was that Chinese demand for jet fuel would significantly increase since more people would be traveling by airplane to celebrate their freedom. However, progress in removing travel restrictions has been slower than anticipated. The current geopolitical tensions, such as the impact of the Ukrainian conflict on flights, have caused China to be somewhat isolated, particularly from western countries.

New data from Flight Master, a travel platform, shows that international flights departing from China are only at 39% of their pre-COVID levels. In terms of flights specifically headed to the US, the number is even lower, sitting at just 6.6%, due to the fact that the two countries only allow a maximum of 12 direct flights per week. Analysts at BloombergNEF predict that demand for flights to the US will eventually increase later this year if travel restrictions ease up. Until then, it looks like jet fuel consumption in China will be driven mostly by trips to Thailand.

China has been buying a lot of crude oil recently in anticipation of an increase in demand from downstream industries. However, this has not come to fruition and now there is an excess of oil sitting in storage tanks. Storage facilities on land are currently almost full, which is exacerbated by the regular maintenance carried out by refineries in this season. This indicates that future imports may decrease from this point onward.

(Unless specified otherwise, all times mentioned are in Beijing time.) The original sentence is already in free English, but I have provided a rephrased version that uses different words.

Join CCTD's weekly virtual update on the state of the Chinese coal industry every Wednesday at 3:00 PM.

The first day of the EPOWER exhibition in Shanghai, China.

Day 1 of the China LNG & Gas Summit was held in Shanghai.

On the fourth day of the Shanghai International Carbon Neutrality Expo, various exhibits and presentations were held to showcase the latest innovations and technologies in the renewable energy and carbon neutrality sectors. Attendees had the opportunity to learn about different initiatives and plans to reduce carbon emissions, such as introducing electric vehicles and using renewable energy sources. The event also provided a platform for networking and discussing potential collaborations towards achieving carbon neutrality goals.

China has established a new monthly rate for medium-term loans. This decision was made at 9:20am.

The latest update on the pricing of residential properties in China for the month of May has been released at 9:30.

AM, June 15, 2021. On June 15th, 2021 at 10:00 AM, there will be a report released on the industrial production of China in the month of May. This report will cover various sectors such as steel and aluminum manufacturing, coal production, gas and power generation, as well as crude oil extraction and refining.

Sales in stores, permanent resources, investing in land and buildings, selling homes for living purposes, and the percentage of people without jobs are all important economic indicators.

Jiangxi Copper will be conducting a digital earnings presentation today at 3 in the afternoon.

Day 2 of the EPOWER exhibition in Shanghai, China has come to an end. The event showcased various innovative technologies and products related to power transmission and distribution, energy management, renewable energy, and energy storage. Attendees included industry experts, business leaders, and government officials. Throughout the day, various lectures and seminars were held, providing insights and knowledge on the latest trends and developments in the industry. Participants also had the opportunity to network and establish new business connections. The exhibition was a success, highlighting the importance and potential of the power sector in China and the rest of the world. It served as a platform for companies to showcase their products and collaborate in advancing the industry. We look forward to the next EPOWER exhibition and the continued growth and advancement of the power sector.

On the second day of the China LNG & Gas Summit held in Shanghai, there were several interesting discussions and presentations. The summit focused on the opportunities and challenges of the liquefied natural gas (LNG) and gas industry in China and globally. Some of the key themes discussed were the potential increase in demand for LNG in the transportation sector, the importance of environmental sustainability in the industry, and the role of China in the global gas market. Attendees also heard from several experts in the field, who shared their thoughts on the future of the LNG and gas industry. There were also a number of networking opportunities throughout the day, allowing attendees to connect with peers and create new business relationships. Overall, the second day of the China LNG & Gas Summit proved to be just as informative and engaging as the first day, and highlighted the important role that China will continue to play in the global energy sector.

Every week, China collates data on the amount of iron ore that is stored at their ports. This is an important metric for the country's iron ore trading industry as it helps to inform decisions on supply and demand. The stockpile levels can reflect changes in the market, such as increased or decreased demand. This information is watched closely by traders and investors, as well as industry experts, to gain insight into China's economy and the global iron ore market.

Every week at approximately 3:30 p.m., the Shanghai exchange takes inventory of its commodities.

On the third day of the China EPOWER exhibition in Shanghai, various impressive displays were showcased. The exhibitors brought out their best products and technologies to demonstrate their prowess in the energy sector. Attendees were presented with a diverse range of energy solutions, from renewable energies like solar and wind power, to traditional coal-fired power plants. New innovations like electric vehicles, portable power banks, and energy storage systems were also on show, attracting a lot of attention. In addition to the products, informative seminars and workshops were held on topics such as clean energy, energy conservation, and sustainable development. Experts in the field shared their knowledge and expertise, making the event an enriching experience for all attendees. Overall, day three of the China EPOWER exhibition was a success, as it brought together industry leaders, innovative products, and valuable information for the energy sector.

On the third day of the China LNG & Gas Summit in Shanghai, several discussions and panels took place relating to the liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. Various experts in the field shared their knowledge and insights into topics such as LNG trading, policy regulations, and the future of LNG as a fuel source. The attendees engaged in fruitful conversations and networked with each other. Overall, the event was a success and provided valuable information for those in the LNG industry in China.

The latest information on China's trade for the month of May has been released. This includes details on the import of agricultural products, as well as the importation of LNG and pipeline gas. There is also a breakdown of the country's trade of oil products. Additionally, there are reports on the export of alumina, copper, and rare-earth products. Finally, there is information on the import of bauxite, steel, and aluminum products.

The latest figures show that credit growth in May was significantly lower than in previous years, indicating that China's recovery from the Covid pandemic is starting to slow down. This downward trend is expected to be even more pronounced when the data for May is released on Thursday, revealing a clear slowdown in China's economic activity.

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